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9th Demographic Conference of "Young Demographers" – Presentations and online discussion forum

2018-02-16

Bora Jayanta Kumar,1 Acharya Sanghmitra Sheel,2 Saikia Nandita3

1,2Indian Institute of Dalit Studies, India

3International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, USA

Under-five Mortality in Indian Districts: A Comparative Study between Deprived and Non-deprived Castes in India

Objective: Mortality among infants and children has been declining in India in recent decades yet, this decline is not equally distributed across geographic regions and social groups in India. In this study, we aim to compare under-five mortality level of deprived social groups (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes) with non-deprived social groups of population in India at district level. We further examine the role of presence of deprived social groups on under-five mortality likelihood at district level.
Data and method: We analysed data from the Census 2011 of India to estimate the under-five mortality at district levels. Using the Brass method, we first derived district-level indirect estimates of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by sex. We carried out multiple regression analysis to examine the association of U5MR with percent of scheduled castes (SC) and scheduled tribe (ST) population at district level. Findings: U5MR of SC and ST population is substantially higher than that of non-SC or ST population in India and its states. Regression results showed that the U5MR in districts rises with increasing percent population of ST and increasing percent population of SC population. The male disability prevalence rate (p<0.01) is highly significant in male SCs and STs U5MR at district level, however female disability prevalence rate (p<0.01) is associated with ST female U5MR. The other determinants like percent of household without electricity facility, percent of urban population, percent of main workers and percent of household with no latrine facility within the premises are the significant predictors for the increasing of U5MR in districts. Higher female literacy rate and using clean fuel for cooking is significantly associated with a lower under-five mortality rate in Indian districts. Conclusion: Addressing the health needs of deprived social groups like SCs and STs are important to meet sustainable goals related to health.

Keywords: Infant mortality; Census; Scheduled Caste (SC); Scheduled Tribe (ST); Sex; Female literacy; India

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Broulíková Hana M.,1 Čermáková Pavla,2 Arltová Markéta3

1,2National Institute of Mental Health, Czech Republic

1,3University of Economics, Czech Republic

Czech Alzheimer’s Population

The aim of this study is to describe characteristics of Czech patients suffering from Alzheimer’s disease. Even though detailed demographic data about the Czech Alzheimer’s population has been long called for, only limited information is currently available. We close this gap by combining Czech clinical data and several national registers, including the National Register of Hospitalized Patients, the National Causes of Death Register, and the newly released National Register of Paid Health Services. From these sources, we derive information about age at disease diagnosis, cause and age of death, comorbidities, diagnostic method, treatment strategies, hospitalization risk, and duration of hospitalization. The obtained descriptive data will further enable us to build a Cox proportional hazard model estimating life expectancy of different demographic groups of the Alzheimer’s population. Moreover, information on usual treatment strategies and their outcomes will provide a basis for modeling progression of the disease and the ensuing cognitive decline in time, and to ascertain the effect of treatment on hospitalization and death risk. Results of this study may readily be used in economic analyses of costs associated with the disease and of benefits gained from its treatment in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Register data; Age at diagnosis; Hospitalization risk; Death risk

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Cilek Laura,1 Chowell Gerardo,2 Fariñas Ramiro Diego3

1Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, Spain

2Georgia State University, USA

3Spanish National Research Council, Spain

Estimating Baseline Mortality from Limited Data: A Comparison of Approaches to Quantify the Effects of Spanish Influenza in Madrid

Quantifying the strength and timing of epidemics requires a reasonable expectation of baseline mortality.  However, in historical populations, it is difficult to find this information at an appropriate level of detail. For example, in our quest to measure the mortality impact of Spanish Influenza in Madrid between 1918-1920, we are limited to constructing a weekly baseline from either one year of individual death records (1917) or several of years of aggregated monthly data.  In this paper, we use four traditional and innovative methods to examine approaches to constructing baseline and excess mortality for various population subsets during the four epidemic waves of Spanish Influenza in Madrid.

The first and simplest method merely assumes in 1917, mortality followed a normal pattern, and excess mortality is quantified as the difference in observed deaths during an epidemic and the same given week in 1917.  A Sefling regression model constitutes the second method; we construct an oscillating mortality baseline using parameters to incorporate time and seasonal trends. Our third approach employs a modified Serfling technique to account for a slight summer mortality peak.  In this third method, we also simulate Poisson-distributed weekly mortality data from the 1917 death records, then perform parametric bootstrapping to account for year-to-year mortality variability.  Finally, we explore the application of a quadratic spline model (used to estimate fertility schedules from aggregated data) and use monthly data to approximate weekly mortality, given some expectations of seasonal variability.  We discuss the results and practicality of each baseline construction.

Keywords: Mortality; Epidemiology; Limited Data; Method Applications

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Dantis Charalampos

Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium

Fertility Intentions and Religiosity in 9 European Countries: Is There Something Specific with Men?

In developed countries, the influence of religion on social life has experienced an impressive decline. However, literature shows a positive effect of all forms of religiosity on fertility intentions and this effect is stronger on men. In this paper I examine the effect of attendance in religious services and of belonging in a religious group on men’s intentions to have a third child in 9 European countries representing six different welfare states. I use the first wave of the dataset of the Generations and Gender Programme and Logistic Regression models. The results show that church attendance has a positive effect on men’s and women’s fertility intentions in all countries. However, the effect of church attendance is much stronger on men. As to religious affiliation, controlling for socio-economic characteristics, Muslim’s fertility is lower than Christian’s fertility in Bulgaria, where they have been living together with Christians during several centuries.

Keywords: Fertility intentions; Religiosity; Welfare State; Gender; European countries

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Kebede Endale, Goujon Anne, Lutz Wolfgang

Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, Austria

Stalls in Africa’s Fertility Decline are Consequence of Education Disruptions in the 1980s

Recently, most population projections for Sub-Saharan Africa have been corrected upwards because in a number of countries the earlier declining trends in fertility rates had stalled in the years around 2000. While most studies so far have focused on economic, political or other factors prevalent around 2000, here we show that the phenomenon is likely caused by the cohorts of girls who should have entered school in the 1980s but could not do so due to cuts in social expenditures following the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP) imposed on several African countries. These programs affected expenditures on education by governments and households and had an impact on school intake, particularly for girls. Because of the well-established strong link between female education and fertility in Africa, the fertility decline stalled when these relatively less educated young cohorts entered their prime childbearing ages around 2000. To study this hypothesis in more detail we combine individual level data from series of DHS (Demographic and Health Surveys) for 18 African countries – with and without fertility stalls – thus creating a pooled dataset of 1,831,022 births to 573,091 women for cohorts born from 1950 to 1990 by level of education. Visual and multivariate statistical analyses clearly confirm the hypothesis that the fertility stalls in the affected countries were largely caused by the cohorts of women that experienced education stalls in the context of SAP. Conversely, most countries that did not undergo such education stalls in the 1980s also did not face fertility stalls around 2000.

Keywords: Fertility; Sub-Saharan Africa; Education; Structural adjustment programs; Population projections

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Koloh Gábor

Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary

Birth Control of a Lutheran German Village in Hungary

The paper based on the birth trajectories of several hundreds of families from the Southern-Transdanubien Region of Hungary in the period of 1790 and 1894. The main topic of the paper are the birth control practices by a Lutheran German Minority Group. Besides the birth registers as the traditional primary source for family reconstitution, the paper also based on family books compiled by German researchers for some individual settlements. The geographical scope is limited to Kismányok (Kleinmanok). The changes associated with the economic restructuring between the end of the eighteenth and the middle of the nineteenth century. The findings of the study suggest that birth control is a practice employed in response to a crisis situation, which in this case appears as a regional characteristic. While higher fertility rates among older German women are certainly in correlation with ethnocultural factors, this phenomenon is of a secondary significance in this particular region.

Keywords: Birth control; German minority; Lutheran groups; Hungarian historical demography

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Klára Čapková

Stockholm University, Sweden

Earnings Penalty for Single Fathers: Evidence from Finnish Register Data

Single fathers constitute a unique group for the research on earning inequalities as they combine the potential of gaining premia for being fathers and primary breadwinners with penalties for being the primary caregivers. Research focusing on the negative economic implications of parenthood in the labor market has predominantly focused on mothers, inquiring motherhood penalty, and has singled out single mothers as a particularly vulnerable group. However, the exposure to single parenthood brings the same demands on combining the roles of sole parent and sole provider for both fathers and mothers. For both fathers and mothers, single parenthood often brings economic hardship. We investigate the short and long-term consequences of becoming a single residential father focusing on earnings trajectories over the life-course, and compare the patterns in earnings trajectories of people who became single fathers and single mothers using growth curve models. We employ Finnish longitudinal register data on cohabitation, marriage and childbearing histories, prospective information on employment, and work and entrepreneurial earnings. We focus on birth cohorts 1969-1970 between ages 18-41. The estimates from the series of growth curve models suggest that for mothers there is a small parenthood penalty, for single mothers the penalty is larger and doesn’t diminish over time. The fatherhood premium is present for men, but gets cancelled out by the penalty for single fathers to a large extent. Still, compared to single mothers, the overall negative impact of single parenthood on earnings trajectories is less detrimental for single fathers.

Keywords: Single fathers; Earnings trajectory; Eearnings penalty

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Klusa Anna

University of Latvia, Latvia

Evaluation of Economical Activity and Educational Attainment of Latvian Population through Administrative and Sample Surveys’ Data

Background: Economical activity and educational attainment of Latvian population are very important issues for the next Population and Housing Census in 2021 that will be based only on administrative data sources. Scheduled research has been done to evaluate whether the person is economically active or not. Research question: Objective of this study is to investigate the portrait of economically active part of Latvian population using by data of previous Population and Housing Censuses and data from administrative data sources on January 1, 2016 by sex, different age groups, educational achievement. Exploring the question whether employers have higher educational achievement than employees is a purpose of this investigation. Data and methods:Information on economic activity of Latvian population from Labour Force Survey (LFS) are used in quantitative analysis and compared with corresponding data from previous Population and Housing Censuses and administrative data sources. For research the data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), European Health Interview Survey (EHIS) and LFS have been taken. Findings, conclusions: Data of previous Population and Housing Censuses gives opportunities to analyze economical activity of Latvian population in quite detailed issues and data shows that most part of employers (31,5%) have secondary education and 26,4% have master’s degree.

Keywords: Census; Employers; Education

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Komodromou Maria Elena

University of Essex, Great Britain

Does Postpartum Depression Affect Employment?

Depression in the postpartum period (PPD) is considered a major public health problem. It is a relatively common psychological disorder following childbirth which, if left untreated, may have long-term adverse effects on women’s mental health.Empirical evidence regarding the effects of postpartum depression on maternal employment is very limited, however. Using data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and a timespan covering several years (3 to 11 years after the birth) the present study explores the possible effects of postpartum depression on maternal employment in the UK, with the aim of gaining an insight into the possible pathways or mechanisms through which PPD is likely to impact on maternal employment outcomes. The findings of this study are of significance to policy makers as they indicate that PPD has a direct effect on maternal employment at age 5 and an indirect effect at ages 7 and 11, mediated through subsequent maternal mental and physical health problems.

Keywords: Postpartum depression; Mmental health; Employment

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Kondi Keiti

Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium

Gender Gap, Intra Household Bargaining and Sex Selective Abortion in Albania

Among European countries Albania has by far the highest sex ratio at birth with 1.12 boys per girls, compared to the European average of 1.058. Considering this disbalance, the aim of this paper is to analyze a mechanism that measures the sensitivity between sex ratios, potential gender gap measures and investment in children. We focus on the reasons behind parent’s choice for the sex of their children by considering different preferences for each of them. We try to solve the problematic of sex selective abortion by developing a minimalistic model which incorporates different utilities for boys and girls, the bargaining between family members and the decision about abortion dependant on its cost. This cost affects decisions on the composition of the family. We calibrate the model using data of the Demographic and Health Survey dataset on Albania for the year 2008. Furthermore we find for what values of the gender gap and investment in children we can get normal values of the sex ratio. To conclude we propose different policies that can be associated to the decline of the sex ratio disparity.

Keywords: Sex selective abortion; Gender gap; Investment in children; Cost of abortion

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Lece Kristīne

University of Latvia, Latvia

Differentiation of Emigration Processes Depending on the Demographical Factors in Latvia

On the contrary to the situation in the Nordic countries and Western Europe affected by the immigration crisis, the major problem in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States is emigration, which leads to the loss of a significant part of the population.
The main reason for emigration today is economic factors. Therefore, it is essential to identify the potential socioeconomic, demographic and regional factors of a potential international emigrant in order to be able to predict the probability of emigration and to develop proposals for preventive measures to reduce emigration. The aim of the research is to study the role of educational level, marital status and place of residence in emigration processes from Latvia in 2011 - 2016. Data and methodology: The data have been analysed on individual level by using information of the Population Register of the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs, 2011 Population Census, Ministry of Education and Science, e.t.c. The study population includes persons who were 20 to 59 years old in the Population Census 2011. The point of reference is the legal status of person on January 1st, 2017. Results: The comparison with the distribution of educational levels in the population shows that lower educational level increases the chance of emigration. The group with greatest probability of emigration is 20-29 years old men with basic education. Divorce also increases the chance of emigration.

Keywords: Emigration; Education; Marital status

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Makarski Krzysztof,1 Malec Magda,2 Tyrowicz Joanna3

1,2Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

3Group for Research in Aplied Economics, Poland

Evaluating Welfare and Economic Effects of Raised Fertility

In the context of the second demographic transition many countries consider pro-natalistic policies as viable solutions to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity and declining fertility. However, increased number of births implies immediate economic costs and delayed economic gains, whereas a quantification of these gains remains a challenge. We propose a method to quantify the effects in increased birth rates, by the means of an overlapping generations model with a rich family structure. We analyze the overall macroeconomic and welfare effects as well as distribution of these effects across cohorts and study the sensitivity of the final effects to the assumed target value and path of increased fertility. We find that fiscal effects may be positive, but even in the case of relatively large fertility increase they are small. The sign and the size of both welfare and fiscal effects depend substantially on the patterns of increased fertility: if increased fertility occurs via lower childlessness, it is more costly in fiscal and welfare terms than intensive margin adjustments.

Keywords: Fertility; Welfare; Pro-natalistic policies; Overlaping generations model

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Malmi Eric, Gionis Aristides, Solin Arno

Aalto University, Finland

Computationally Inferred Genealogical Networks Uncover Long-Term Trends in Assortative Mating

Genealogical networks, also known as family trees or population pedigrees, are commonly studied by genealogists wanting to know about their ancestry, but they also provide a valuable resource for disciplines such as digital demography, genetics, and computational social science. These networks are typically constructed by hand through a very time-consuming process, which requires comparing large numbers of historical records manually. We develop computational methods for automatically inferring large-scale genealogical networks. A comparison with human-constructed networks attests to the accuracy of the proposed methods. To demonstrate the applicability of the inferred large-scale genealogical networks, we present a longitudinal analysis on the mating patterns observed in a network. This analysis shows a consistent tendency of people choosing a spouse with a similar socioeconomic status, a phenomenon known as assortative mating. Interestingly, we do not observe this tendency to consistently decrease (nor increase) over our study period of 150 years.

Keywords: Population reconstruction; Probabilistic record linkage; Assortative mating; Social homogamy

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Masek Marty

Florida State University, USA

2009 Population of Syria: Baseline for a Study of Refugees

The Syrian civil war has displaced millions of Syrians, of which 5.3 million are refugees outside of Syria and 6.3 million are internally displaced people (IDPs) as of November 2017. The demographic, cultural and political characteristics of individuals who leave the country versus individuals who stay have been scarcely studied. Studies usually treat refugees, IDPs, and other Syrian residents as a homogenous population, but Syrians are a diverse people. For example, the population of Syria is estimated to be composed of 74% Sunni Muslims, 13% Alawi and Shia Muslims, 10% Christians, 10% Kurds, 3% Druzes, and other smaller ethnic and religious minority groups. My research compares this distribution of groups in pre-war Syria to the composition of the Syrian refugee population.

Keywords: Syria; Refugees; Ethnic groups; Demography

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Mazouch Petr

University of Ecnomics, Czech Republic

Excess Mortality of Young Men - Cohort Analysis

Natural development of mortality in younger ages of males is disturbed by excess which is known as mortality „bump“. Many analysis are based on transversal data where causes of that development are discussed. This contribution focuses to cohort analysis. Data from Human Mortality Database are used. Results are expressed as temporary life expectancy and also estimates of lost years are done. Basic analysis is done for the Czech Republic and some other comparable country and cohorts from 1935 are analysed.

Keywords: Mortality; Excess mortality; Temporary life expectancy

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Ruml, Jiří

Charles University, Czech Republic

Comparison of Life Quality in Czech Municipalities Based on the Analysis of Big and Open Data

A common problem when working with data on individual municipalities is the "data blindness”. The problem is not that there is a shortage of data, rather that this data is mostly fragmented, separate, not intuitively searchable and immediately usable. It is a serious problem for representatives of municipalities and ordinary citizens to work with this kind of data and compare the individual municipalities. We have analyzed data from different data sources to create a quality-of-life index in 205 Czech municipalities and 22 districts of the capital city of Prague. We have calculated over 30 indices from various areas related to happy and contented life style, such as Health and Environment; Work, Education and Standard of Living; Relationships, Free time and Safety. We have been using a robotic downloading and processing of big data from the internet and open data from public institutions. In addition to creating an overall quality-of-life index, we have analyzed the relationships between the indices. This analysis has the potential to identify some problematic areas in individual municipalities and help support strategic management decision making in the public sector.

Keywords: Quality of life; Big data; Open data; Municipalities; Czech Republic

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Saikia Nandita,1 Luy Marc,2 Bora Jayanta3

1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, USA

2Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, Austria

3Indian Institute of Dalit Studies, India

Socio-economic Disparity in Adult Mortality in India: An Application of Orphanhood Method in India Human Development Survey

Background: Due to paucity of data, no previous study has documented adult mortality gradients in India by education, caste and religion in India. Objective: To examine socio-economic disparity in the adult mortality rate (45q15) and life expectancy at age 15 〖(e〗_0^15) in India. Data and Methods: We used Orphanhood method developed by Timæus on parent’s survival data in India Human Development Survey 2011-2012. Results: A consistency analysis of Orphanhood estimates of 45q15 with official statistics confirms robustness of Orphanhood estimates in India. Mortality rate is higher among adults who are illiterates, belong to deprived castes or tribes and having offspring with lower level of education and lower level of household income. Adult mortality rate marginally vary by religions in India.  e_0^15   , an important indicator of overall adult population health, is about 7.2 and 6.2 years shorter for illiterate men and women respectively compared with literate men and women. e_0^15 also varies significantly by the educational attainment of offspring’s. On average, parents of higher secondary (and above) educated children can gain about 5.2-7.9 years of adult life than parents of illiterate children.  Disparity in e_0^15 by caste and religion is not as significant as that of education or income. Conclusion: Adult mortality burden disproportionately falls to illiterate adults and adults having less educated offspring. Thus educational attainment appears to be very important for Indian adult’s aspiration for a longer life. In absence of adult mortality statistics by socio-economic status in India, large scale surveys should continue collecting information for application of indirect techniques for mortality estimation in India.

Keywords: Adult mortality; Life expectancy; India, Indirect estimation; Orphan hood

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Singh Akansha,1 Katyan Himanshu2

1Universite Catholique de Louvain, Belgium

2SAS Institute Inc

Using SAS® Enterprise Miner to Examine the Severity of Nicotine Dependency in India

Smoking in India has been known since at least 2000 BC and remains prevalent in the society to this day.  World Health Organization predicts that India will have the fastest rate of rise in deaths attributable to tobacco in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. That means that one million of tobacco related deaths each year is expected.  Consequently, it is imperative to examine the extent of nicotine dependency and socio-economics determinants of nicotine dependency among adults in India. Since the early 1950s, many thousands of relevant health-effects studies have been performed on the use of tobacco.  Considering the current volume and growth rate of large public health data, it is not a simple matter to recognize and understand important relationships in that data. Fortunately, SAS® Enterprise Miner (EM) provides an interactive, intuitive, browser-based interface for creating descriptive and predictive models on data of any size—rapidly!  The easy-to-use, drag-and-drop interface provides non-programming access to powerful SAS statistical modeling and machine-learning techniques. This paper illustrates the use of SAS EM as a visualization and reporting tool for advanced multivariate and predictive analytics using Global Adult tobacco survey data from India.  Also addressed is the use of Decision Tree modeling based on Machine Learning (ML) algorithm to analyse decision to consume tobacco, which has many advantages over other modeling techniques in classification and prediction applications. Results from Decision Tree models shows that low level of education, long duration of tobacco consumption and sex significantly effects nicotine dependency in India.

Keywords: SAS® Enterprise Miner; Decision Tree; Machine-learning Bi-Variate Analysis; Nicotine Dependency; Public Health

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Smigielski Witold,1 Gajda Janusz,2 Kaluza-Kopias Dorota,3 Gajda Robert, Drygas Wojciech

1,3University of Lodz, Poland

2Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland

Life Expectancy and All-caused Mortality among Polish Soccer Player

Level of recreational physical activity is strongly correlated with decrease of total mortality level and increases of life expectancy. However in the case of taking sport professionally we still do not have a clear answer. In the literature we can find argument considering different disciplines there seems to be a real advantage for athletes in endurance sports or in tracks and fields, whereas this advantage was smaller or not present in team sports and in power sports. Despite high popularity of soccer there is still lack of scientific evidence about the influence of competitive soccer playing on life expectancy. Two existing study, which one can find in literature, did not give a clear answer if such an activity is associated with reducing mortality level. This paper is then a pioneering attempt where we want to fill this gap.

All analyses were carried out in three birth cohorts, namely 1905-1920, 1921-1935 and 1935-1950.  Our results revealed that players born between 1905-1920 had similar life expectancy to overall men population born in the same time. For the other cohorts of professional players  median of death age was about 3-4 years higher than expected life expectancy of men population in general. Our results show that professional football players are characterized by higher life expectancy compared to the general male population. Although soccer players live longer, we need to add that they are more likely to die because of cardiovascular disease and digestive system disease.

Keywords: Life expectancy; Competitive athletes; Soccer player; Cause of death

If you are intrested in the presented study contact the authors by mail - wsmigielski@ikard.pl.

 

Zajkowska Olga,1 Buchholtz Sonia2

1Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poland

2Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Long-term Impact of Maternity Leave Design on the Employability of Poles

The primary objective of maternity leave is maintaining mother’s health after childbirth, ensuring her continuous employment record and, thus, providing financial security to families, so that the newborn could profit from the early-stage development. In this sense, literature confirms maternity leaves have largely been successful worldwide. However, little is known about their long-term impact on the mother’s employability. We assume two counteracting phenomena exist: while extending the leave is beneficial for the mother in terms of her health, it may exacerbate skill depreciation or reduction of labour market attachment (especially in case of many labours). In consequence, it is not clear, which phenomenon outweighs the other. Moreover, long-term effects may be affected by adverse selection or survivorship bias. Bearing this in mind, we conduct a quantitative analysis on the basis of SHARE data (waves 3, 4, 6) to identify the determinants of long-term employability of older Poles, and their changing attitudes as policy evolved (with reforms in 1948, 1968, 1972). We verify our hypothesis of the negative long-term impact on employability with necessary robustness checks using both subjective and objective measures of health status and skills.

Keywords: Maternity leave; Employability; Long-term outcomes

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