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7th Demographic Conference of "Young Demographers" – Presentations and online discussion forum

2016-02-09

Avram Cristina, Gagauz Olga

Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic; Center for Demographic Research, Republic of Moldova

Healthy Life Expectancy in the Republic of Moldova

The article presents the results of the research on healthy life expectancy in the Republic of Moldova. Calculations were performed according to the Sullivan's method, based on Household Budget Survey (NBS) data, for 2006-2013. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are in a continuous slow growth, for both sexes and all age groups. The share of time spent in a very good/good and fair state of health is increasing. The health of the elderly is also improving. The urban population has a higher life expectancy, but spends more time in a fair state of health than the rural population. At the same time, gender differences persist - women live longer than men, but in a worse health status.

keywords: healthy life expectancy, Sullivan’s method, self-perceived health, Republic of Moldova

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Baltas Pavlos, Kotzamanis Byron, Kostaki Anastasia

Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece

The Implications of the Recent Economic Crisis on Fertility in Greece

A systematic review of economic recessions previously occurred in developed countries, confirms that economic crises always have serious effects in population dynamics (e. g. Sobotka et al. 2010; Khang et al., 2005). Regarding fertility, beyond national differences, the economic downturn, particularly the reduction of incomes and the rise of unemployment levels, have always significant impact, such as the reduction of cohort fertility indicators, the increase in the mean age at childbearing and marriage (Meron and Widmer, 2002), the decline of intergenerational fertility levels (less children per woman and increase of the proportion of women who never marry). However, the sensitivity of fertility behavior to economic shocks is less pronounced in countries with a long tradition in family policies and strong social security systems. The recent strong economic downturn in Greece occurred under different social conditions than earlier recessions, because today more women than ever before participate in the labor market, most couples use reliable contraception method that allows them to postpone childbearing, while social insurance and the health cost are heavily burdened by the rapid increase of the size of the elderly population. All these factors influence the reproductive decisions and potentially have adverse effects on fertility. In this framework, by developing and applying appropriate statistical modelling, we examine the potential ruptures-twists of past trends in the patterns and levels of fertility.

keywords: Greece, fertility, recent economic crisis, statistical modelling

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Börger Matthias, Genz Martin, Ruß Jochen

Ulm University, Germany

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Patterns of Worldwide Mortality Evolution

There exists a variety of literature on the question how the age distribution of deaths develops over time, and many different notions have been established for certain scenarios. In Börger et al. (2015), a classification framework has been developed which allows for a unique classification of mortality evolution patterns. In particular, every possible mortality evolution is assigned a unique scenario. In contrast to many other classification approaches, the framework allows for mixed scenarios, e.g. a combination of elements of compression and shifting mortality. Thus, it provides a more complete picture of historical mortality evolution patterns. In the present paper, we briefly summarize this classification framework and discuss issues in its practical application. Then, we apply the framework to mortality data for different countries all over the world. This yields a complete picture of historical mortality evolution patterns in those countries and adds to existing analyses where only certain aspects of mortality evolution patterns have been considered (e.g. a test for one scenario like compression). We then discuss similarities and differences in the historical mortality evolution patterns between different populations. Since sometimes, different scenarios can be observed for different age ranges, even for the same population, we apply the framework to different age ranges in order to detect such effects.

keywords: extension, compression, mortality evolution patterns, historical trends in mortality

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Čičevski Teodor, Arsenović Daniela

Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, University of Novi Sad, Serbia

Tempo Effects and Fertility Decline in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia)

The region of Vojvodina has been characterized by low and insufficient fertility rates as well as the continuous decrease in fertility in the past few decades. Today, emphasis is put on individualism, emancipation; we insist more on the quality of our own and our children’s lives; the abortion laws are more liberal and the contraception is simple, efficient and available. Giving birth represents the freedom of choice; the component of social and existential pressure no longer exists. This paper analyses the total fertility rate of the population of Vojvodina in the period of 1953-2012. The tempo effect is calculated by applying the Bongaarts-Feeney formula. Based on the results obtained during the calculation of the “tempo-adjusted” total fertility rate, we can conclude that the tempo effect is prominent in Vojvodina due to the increase of the average age at which the mother gives birth. The age of mother at childbirth has increased from the average of 25.6 years in 1989 to 28.9 years in 2013. The greater average age of the mother is best reflected in the shift of the majority of births to later five year periods in her life. By observing the “ideal” specific fertility rates in accordance to age (nnx), adjusted to the birth model in this region we can conclude that fewer births occur in the earlier five year periods from the ages of 15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25-29. This decrease indicates the changes in relation to previous birth trends when the territory of Vojvodina had a simple population reproduction. The decrease is prominent in the five year periods from the age of 20 to 24. Childbirth is more typical of five year periods from age 30 to 34 and 35 to 39. In the last decade, the increase in live birth was prominent in these five year periods. The delay in childbirth not only accounts for the increase in the average age at childbirth, it also causes lower fertility levels. By delaying childbirth a number of women will not be able to give birth to the desired number of children during her fertile period.

keywords: tempo effect, total fertility rate, "tempo-adjusted" total fertility rate, Vojvodina

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Deslauriers Véronique

University of Montreal, Canada

Contrasting Early and Late Adolescence’s Sexual and Reproductive Health in Sub-Saharan Africa

Today, adolescents between 10 and 19 years of age represent more than 1.2 billion people in the world and sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where their growth is expected to soar in the coming years. The interest in their sexual and reproductive health is manifested in the Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health. Adolescence, a transitional period between childhood and adulthood, marked by physical, psychological and behavioral changes, is a stage of great vulnerability. The prevalence of HIV infection continues to grow amongst adolescents, and maternal mortality, early or unintented pregnancies, and STDs are significant problems that affect the young people of this continent. A lack of consistency in the definition and the study of this population masks the differences between the phases (early adolescence 10-14 and late adolescence 15-19) of the second decade of life. A systematic review of the literature was conducted from the databases Medline, Embase, and Web of Science, synthesizing publications between 1990 and 2015, to compare the knowledge, needs and risks inherent in each of the two periods. Not only are the characteristics of the different ages highlighted, but the lack of knowledge about young adolescents is stark. In the wake of the newly revealed targets set for 2030, it is imperative to fill in these empirical gaps in order to achieve these objectives. The use of participatory research seeking vulnerable adolescents will consolidate the advancements in children’s health, and will contribute to the sustainable development of sub-Saharan Africa’s countries.

keywords: early adolescence, late adolescence, sexual and reproductive health, sustainable development, sub-Saharan Africa

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Fialová Ludmila, Hulíková Klára, Kuprová Barbora

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic

Advanced Statistical Methods in Historical Demography – Example on the Population Born at the 18th Century in Jablonec (Czech Lands)

Historical data of population of the Czech lands have been studied only through the traditional methods of historical demography (e. g. family reconstitution method, simple descriptive statistics) so far. However, individual historical data from parish registers offer many possibilities of application of other methods, which are commonly used in demographic analysis of contemporary data, for example the survival analysis, the Cox regression. Aim of the paper is to show the application of survival analysis and Cox regression on the reproductive behavior of people born at the 18th century in Jablonec in the Czech lands. Durations between the birth and the death and between the wedding and the death are studied by survival analysis. Birth-birth intervals are studied by Cox regression. This paper shows that advanced statistical methods are suitable for the analysis of historical data. They confirm and extend traditional results.

keywords: historical demography, parish registers, survival analysis, Cox regression

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Guitérrez Jorge González

El Colegio de México, Mexico

The Epistemology of Inequality in Demography

One of the main objetives of demography since it could be considered as a scientific discipline is to realice statististic and mathematic estimation of the three demographic fenomena: mortality, fertility and migration. This aspect is associated with a great amount of knowledge in manipulation of data, the interpretation of it and in general a good practice in quantitative methods. However, at least in Latin American demography, there is a lack of epistemological work to figure out the theoretical assumptions. Since the relevant book of Álvaro Vieira Pinto called “Critical Thought in demograhy” of 1973, there only have been a few meditations oabout thi issue. As this author have recalled demogray is not completely objetive as it pretends and it has a los of ideological assumptions. Taking especifically about inequality a mortality, the interpretation of the first one in relation with the second one has change: at least in Mexico the operationalization of inequality in the 1980's has a big influence of marxism; nowadays the Tocqueville perspective is the most hegemonic point of view. It could be a relevant discussion to ask why and how this change has been ocurred in Mexico and Latin America.

keywords: inequality, mortality

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Ivánková Markéta

Department of Germanic Studies, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic

Women’s Voice in Medieval Icelandic Diplomas

The aim of this paper is the interpretation of female activities attested in medieval Icelandic legal documents. The analysis is based on material from the Diplomatarium islandicum, a complete corpus of diplomas until 1400 will be taken into account (approximately 1600 documents). The position of women in the Old Norse society has been in the centre of socio-historical discussion for a long time. However, the research has been based mainly on the laws or semi-fictional Icelandic sagas. The laws, being normative sources, and the Icelandic sagas, realistic and objective fiction yet still fictional narratives, should nevertheless be considered in the context of diplomatic evidence. It is the official documents that can supply us with first-hand information. In order to interpret the gender roles in the Icelandic family sagas and in the contemporary sagas (that depict events of the 13th and 14th centuries), the non-fictional evidence is needed, and the laws can provide us only with the frame of officially set rules, not with the practical course of action. In this paper, the main focus will lie on the cases where women are acting independently, and we will try to establish whether it was unusual or if such actions were frequently taken by a female. Special attention will be devoted to the wife’s consent to the selling of property, to the frequency of her witnessing legal acts.

keywords: Iceland, diplomas, female roles, gender, legal

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Kašpar Dan, Hulíková Klára

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic

Regional Convergence and Divergence of Mortality in the Czech Republic: 1991–2010

Studies focused on convergence and divergence tendencies of any indicator provide a unique information about its development in time as well as in space, and could be taken almost as a separate field of research in demography and also in other disciplines. The main goal of the paper is to evaluate convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality in the Czech Republic after the year 1990 using both, traditional and specific measures. Data from the Czech Statistical Office is used for the analysis, the studied time period covers years 1991–2010 and life expectancy at birth was selected as the studied indicator.

In the analytical part, first, common statistics and possibilities of visualization of convergence and divergence of mortality are performed. Second, measures considering population weights are presented (the cumulative population distribution by the life expectancy at birth, percentages of population at each level of life expectancy at birth, the Dispersion measure of mortality, DMM). Inequality in death is judged as more inequitable than other inequalities in human well-being and there exist pressure to reduce such disparities. Therefore, it could be expected that mortality convergence appeared in the studied period in the Czech Republic. However, results indicate no clear mortality convergence in Czech districts – on the contrary, for example DMM indicates rather mortality divergence for males. There could be also identified a group of districts (above all in the northwest, e.g. Most, Teplice, Chomutov) which are markedly lagging behind the rest of the Czech population during the whole studied period.

keywords: regional convergence/divergence, mortality, life expectancy, Czech Republic

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Lee Esther, Lee Chulhee

Seoul National University, Korea

Parental Son Preference, Gender Role Attitudes, and Sharing of Housework in Korea

This study investigates how cultural norms on gender roles affect sharing of housework between husband and wife in Korea based on analyzing the newly-added survey on time use in the Korea Labor and Panel Study (KLIPS). Based on the growing evidence on the intergenerational transmission of cultural norms, we hypothesize that parents’ gender views play an important role in forming of children’s gender role attitudes. We employ the sex ratio at birth from 1991 to 1994 in the place of birth as measure of parental son preference. The results of our analyses suggest that men’s gender role attitudes have a significant effect on intra-family time allocation, especially the wife’s time spent on housework. Women married to men whose parents had strong son preference (those born in places with higher sex ratios at birth) tend to spend more time on housework. If the husband has more traditional gender views (according to the answers to questionnaire related to gender views), his wife tends to spend more time on housework. These two measures of male gender norms (parental son preference and own gender views) independently affect the wife’s time spent on housework. This paper empirically supports the view that persistence or slow change in traditional gender norms is an important explanation for the high level of gender inequality in within-family time allocations in Korea.

keywords: son preference, sex ratio at birth, gender inequality, intra-family allocation, cultural transmission

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Lines Emily

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany

Research Awareness and Policy Dialogue: The Role of Aging Experts in the Formation of the “Aging Society” in Germany

The overarching objective of this qualitative study is to examine the relationship between researchers, policy makers, the media, and the general public, and to understand how information spreads. An understanding of how scientific insight is transmitted to the media, policy makers, and the general public is important for the science community in order for their research to have a greater impact in society. It is also essential to then understand how these various groups handle the information they are given. For example, how policy makers use scientific research in their decision-making or how journalists use the information for their news reports. To understand these relationships, they will be placed in the context of the discussion in Germany about population aging, which includes both the general fact that people are living longer (longevity, increasing life expectancy) and the actual growing number of people living longer. This research will seek to answer the questions: Why are Germans talking about population aging more now? When did the discussion about the growing older population first arise? If data has been available and researchers have been studying population aging for some time, then why did policy makers and the media not address the issue sooner?

keywords: science communication, research dissemination, population aging, Germany

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Macavei Anamaria, Stanciu Maria-Daniela

Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Clothing and Dress-codes at the Beginning of the 20th Century in Transylvania

This paper aims to follow the way in which fashion was diffused amongst the Transylvanian elite in the beginning of the 20th century through the German and Transylvanian press. It also tries to present the famous tailors from that period of time and their shops, outlet stores and their locations in the urban space, and the prices of the materials, clothes and accessories. In particular this paper focuses on those who influenced the elite and started a trend, and who were original in advertising themselves. The press was always an important mean of informing, educating and influencing the behaviour of readers. As such the recreation of this world will depend upon the magazines of the early 20th Century as it's main source of evidence. Saxon papers like Siebenburgisch-Deutsches Tageblatt, Hermannstadter Zeitung, and Romanian ones like Familia, Femeia si Familia will be very important in our research because they give us the information we need to recreate the atmosphere form the beginning of the 20th century. However, foreign texts and books about Vienna and Budapest have also been used to created a more rounded picture of this period, and provide a closer insight into a continuously changing and transforming world.

keywords: Saxon and Romanian Press, famous tailors, Transylvanian elite, fashion magazines

 

Oltean Sergiu-Ionut

Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Romanian Life and Culture in Transylvania during the Báthory Dynasty

The choice of Romanian life and culture in the intra-Carpathian area during the Bathory dynasty is the result of a field that has not enough light shed on it. This dynasty, that lasted from 1571 to 1613 is exemplary for the Transylvania Principality. This was a very distinctive period for this region, in which Transilvanya had a semi-independent state, that lasted from 1570 until 1711. This territory was usually under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire, however the principality often had dual vassalage, both the Ottoman Turkish and the Habsburg Hungarian kings. In this context, the villages and the towns inhabited by the Romanians had to cope with the differences between the religion, language and culture. This can be seen in the regulations of the ruling class, which outcast the majority from the possibility of higher social status by excluding the orthodox rite from their ranks, all this while a great percent of the Romanians where orthodox in faith. Yet, this is a time of great collaboration between the little people, who live beyond the political consensus. Hungarians, Saxons and Romanians continue to work together and be of a same mind, because the biggest difference is of social status, not ethnic origins. The lower classes are not affected by more then their daily routines. Although having access to a lesser degree of education, the ethnic majority slowly gets access to the written word, western values and art. The printing press begins to release books written in Romanian which influences enormously the evolution of the popular mind. So I believe that in this period that I am studying, it is possible to understand a little more about a territory so rich in various cultures that is evolving with the times.

keywords: Transylvania Principality, Báthory, romanian culture and religion

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Ponomarjova Denize

University of Latvia, Latvia

Ethnic Differentiation of Socio-demographic Processes: Mortality Example in Latvia at the Beginning of the 21st Century

Based on the historical situation Latvia has multiculturally and multiethnicaly structured society, where ethnicity has always been played an important role in the population statistics, sociological and demographical studies. After the restoration of independence in the Baltic States, when political, economic and sociological reforms took place, studies on ethnicity in the socio-demographic processes advanced in these countries. However, relatively little is known about the ethnical aspect in mortality and health. The aim of this study is to analyse and demonstrate tendencies in ethnic differences between two major ethnic groups in Latvia in mortality, life expectancy and health during the years: 2000-2014. Data and methodology: Due to the small number of population two major ethnic groups in Latvia - Latvians and Russians, which currently constitute 87% of the total population (Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, 2014), were analysed. Data on ethnicity of the deceased in Latvia are obtained mostly from documents (passports for adults or birth certificates for children) and Population register. During this study total and age- & cause-specific mortality rates based on vital statistics (Population register data) for the years 1998-2001 and 2009-2012 were provided. The absolute differences in mortality were evaluated through average life expectancy at birth, based on Population census: 2000 and 2011, and age standardised mortality rate. To demonstrate health tendencies related to the ethnicity (at the beginning of 21st century), the data of cross sectional Health surveys were analysed. Results: ethnic differences in mortality between Latvian and Russian ethnic groups remains in all main categories of ages and causes of death.

keywords: ethnic differences, Latvia, mortality, life expectancy

 

Roy Isabelle

University of Montreal, Canada

Drivers of Diarrhoeal Disease Prevalence among Children under Five Years of Age in Haiti

Diarrhoea is one of the main causes of under-five mortality. In Haiti, it is responsible for about 12% of child mortality. One in five children will contract a diarrhoeal illness. Though the direct causes of diarrhoea are bacterial or viral – most deaths are due to Rotavirus infections – vulnerability is increased with the environment in which children grow. We look at how period, regions, season, household environment and individual characteristics have influenced the changes in diarrhoeal prevalence in Haiti’s under-five population. We looked at data for children born between 1989 and 2012 in the last four Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate which of our selected variables would remain significant when controlling for period effect.

keywords: diarrhoea, Haiti, child, under-five

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Schöley Jonas

Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

The Gestational Age Pattern of Human Mortality

I present a lifetable by gestational age from week 23 until week 100 after the last menstrual period of the mother. The lifetable shows the pre-natal, peri-natal and post-natal mortality levels for US fetus/infants conceived in the year 2009. The observed age pattern of the force of mortality is consistent with three hypothesis about early mortality: 1) Adaptation: as the fetus/infant growths it becomes more resilient towards death, 2) Transitional timing: the transition of birth is a stressful event and momentarily increases the force of mortality, 3) Mortality selection: The frailest die first, resulting in the mean force of mortality to decline with age. In order to quantify the relative importance of these three processes I fit a three component mortality model against the observed force of mortality. The model describes the data with high accuracy, suggesting that the hypotheses about early mortality are correct. Additionally, I conclude that the phenomenon of "ontogenesis" -- the decreasing force of mortality from birth until onset of maturity observed in many species -- is, for modern humans, explained by adaptation and mortality selection alone.

keywords: infant mortality, fetal mortality, biodemography, ontogenescense, lifetable

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Torres Catalina

Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Ageing, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

The Rise in Life Expectancy during the 19th Century: a Comparative Study about the Mortality Decline in some Nordic and other European Countries

For more than 150 years, some populations have experienced sustained gains in life expectancy at birth. This impressive achievement is illustrated with the remarkable linear increase in record life expectancy at birth since 1840 (Oeppen and Vaupel 2002). During the 19th century, the first and the second places were often occupied by Norway and Sweden. There is uncertainty about the factors that provoked important reductions in mortality prior to the advances in sanitation and medicine, which were introduced during the late-19th and the early-20th centuries. Moreover, why did Norway and Sweden have an advantage in survival over other wealthier European populations is a question that has not been fully explored yet, as the research about the historical mortality decline has principally focused on the late-19th and the early-20th centuries as well as on specific countries. In this study, the rise in life expectancy at birth during the 19th century will be analyzed in a broader perspective, by comparing the mortality levels between different Nordic and other European countries. Using data from the Human Mortality Database, the evolution of different measures related to the length of life and its variation will be analyzed and compared between the study countries, paying special attention to the sex-differentials.

keywords: life expectancy at birth, historical demography, Nordic and Western European populations, 19th century

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Villavicencio Francisco, Riffe Tim

University of Southern Denmark, Denmark; University of California, USA

Symmetries between Life Lived and Life Left in Finite Stationary Populations

The Brouard-Carey equality describes the symmetries between the age composition (life lived) and the distribution of remaining lifespans (life left) in stationary populations. This result was formally proved for populations of infinite size and continuous time, and a posterior attempt to prove it for populations of finite size turns out to be incomplete. In this paper we provide a formal mathematical proof of the Brouard-Carey equality for finite stationary populations, using basic mathematical and demographic tools, with particular attention to the Lexis diagram and an extension of the Lexis diagram that accounts for death cohorts. To our knowledge, this proof was not available in the demographic literature until now. We also discuss that the symmetries between life lived and life left in stationary populations can only be proven if time is explicitly discretized. The proof is more complex than in a continuous time framework, but provides a more realistic set-up given the data that is usually available by researchers (surveys, censuses, capture-recapture data, etc.).  This result is a useful rule of thumb for the study of human and non-human populations, especially when subject ages are unknown, but individuals are followed-up until death.

keywords: Brouard-Carey equality, life lived, life left, stationary populations, Lexis diagram

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